In just a matter of weeks, the epic confrontation between good and evil will be waged across modern battlefields and war torn cities.
With over $100 million in marketing behind each title,
Electronic Arts'
Battlefield 3 and Activision's
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 are going to take the fight to retail shelves. While both games are expected to be blockbusters, only one war game can rule them all.
IGN asked some of the industry's top analysts to weigh in on this clash of the titans.
The NPD Group said that life-to-date new physical sales of the Call of Duty franchise tops 60 million units in the U.S., while the Battlefield franchise has sold 10 million units. Anita Frazier, industry analyst for the NPD Group, said that Battlefield is a more heavily PC-driven franchise with roughly half of life-to-date sales being on the PC, whereas Call of Duty is very heavily console-driven.
"While Call of Duty is clearly larger, I do believe we could see bigger Battlefield sales if we included digitally acquired content," said Frazier.
Looking to sales of the new games, analysts have big projections for both titles. According to Billy Pidgeon, analyst at M2 Research,
Battlefield 3 could sell over 10 million copies this year and would likely add another 5 to 8 million in 2012.
"
Battlefield 3 plays particularly well on PC, and this will boost sales in other regions outside the U.S. where console penetration is relatively low," said Pidgeon.
Pidgeon forecasts gamers will pick up as many as 15 million copies of
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 this year with latecomers adding another 5 to 10 million purchases in 2012.
"
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 will likely perform more strongly than Battlefield 3 on consoles, and although it will sell on PC, I expect Battlefield 3 to do better on PC," said Pidgeon.
Michael Pachter, videogame analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities, forecasts Modern Warfare 3 will sell 16 million copies this year and 9 million next year, which is similar to last year's Black Ops sales. For Battlefield 3, he believes EA will sell 8 million copies this year and 2 million next, but he believes a solid Metacritic rating could boost those figures.
"I believe that Call of Duty will outsell Battlefield 3 by 2 to 1, which I have no doubt is a number that both companies will be happy with," said Jesse Divnich, analyst for EEDAR. "We know that Call of Duty has the potential to hit as high as 25 million units this holiday season, if Battlefield 3 obtains half of that, I am sure Electronic Arts will be satisfied."
Even though EA's game hits store shelves earlier than Activision's title, analysts don't believe the two "3s" will hurt each other's sales. Pidgeon believes there will be a fair amount of overlap with over half of gamers buying both titles.
"Both should sell strongly and I don't expect much cannibalization of initial sales," said Pidgeon. "The competition for online, however, will be very strong, and although there will be players who prefer one to the other and will be less likely to switch, many online players will migrate between the two games. This will be important for sales of game add-ons."
"My best guess is that 80% of Call of Duty players are in it for the multiplayer, so I don't see many of them defecting," said Pachter. "It's only the 20% who are up for grabs, and I think that for every Call of Duty player who defects to BF, there will be another new Call of Duty player born."
"
Battlefield 3 is more focused on vehicle integration," said Ted Pollak, videogame analyst at Jon Peddie Research. "Hardcore multiplayer PC gamers, who are actually a growing market, are very bullish on
Battlefield 3 and are becoming disenchanted with the Call of Duty franchise as it seems to cater more to the console crowd. However, the Call of Duty franchise has always had excellent single player content, which will give it an edge."
While EA and
Activision will benefit from these two huge titles, the game industry, as a whole, may suffer. John Taylor, videogame analyst at Arcadia Research, believes these two games will cannibalize sales of other game releases this Christmas.
"They will take all the air out of the room, except for Batman, Skyrim and maybe Assassin's Creed Revelations," said Taylore. "One retailer offered about 160 properties last year from October to December, but this year they are cutting that back to about 90. Retailers are showing real caution on all but the five 'sure bets'. Even Gears of War 3 sales disappointed at least one major retailer."
Michael Pachter believes that
Battlefield 3 and Modern Warfare 3 will combine for 24 million units sold this year, generating over $1.4 billion in sales. That would account for 15% of all packaged game software sold in the fourth quarter.
Pollak believes the game industry will benefit from these two games driving console and PC sales during the Christmas shopping season.
"Modern Warfare 3 and Battlefield 3 will help sales of Xbox 360s and PS3s," said Pollak. "More importantly, and rarely covered by the press, Battlefield 3 is driving upwards of a billion dollars in PC builds and upgrades this year alone. No other title since Crytek's Crysis had such an anticipatory impact on PC hardware sales."
When you wade through all of these numbers, one thing seems for sure. EA will come out of this second head-to-head battle with
Activision much better with DICE's sequel than with last year's Medal of Honor game. At the end of the day, though, gamers will get a pair of blockbuster games that will offer deep and customizable online gameplay experiences that should keep players engaged through the holidays and beyond.
For more on Battlefield vs. Call of Duty, be sure to see our
detailed franchise breakdown.
